Wayne's Fantasy Baseball Draft Recap - Part I

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Hey everyone! I know you're used to Cecilia's posts about clothing, Lucy, and food. But last I checked, this was my blog, too! I started it. So here's a post that's a little bit different. You see, I have played fantasy baseball with a few Harvesters since our college days, with the core group being Michael Ong, Matt Teng, ET, Vince Wong, Brian Quan, Brian Chiu, Boaz Chan (the commish) and myself. Others have since come and gone, but we've stuck together through most of this decade. I've won the league once...and I plan on winning again...with the plan below. So without further ado, here's my FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT SUMMARY, PART I.

If you're really curious, our full draft table can be found HERE and our position summary is on a spreadsheet HERE.

DRAFT STRATEGY
My draft this year was the same as last year: focus on OBP, HRs, and lineup position and make sure I have strong starting pitching. The only caveat was that I was aiming to play with different guys than the years before. So will I be the reconstructed Oakland A's of 2006 or 2008? Will I be Billy Beane or Dave Littlefield? Only time, tons of games and a few pieces of waiver wire trash will tell. Until then, here's Wayne's draft recap (note: I'm using the Yahoo draft results
KEEPER ROUNDS (1-3)
Wayne's picks: Alex Rodriguez, Josh Hamilton, Roy Halladay
Good bye, Big Papi, good bye. I will always treasure the day I picked you over Adrian Beltre and was thus eventually rewarded with a championship. A-Rod, despite the roids, hip injury, pictures of him kissing himself (see right), Madonna, his divorse, the NY media, not being a "True Yankee", being out until May, was an obvious keeper. I'm not 100% sold on Josh Hamilton, especially with his low walk rate and is an injury risk, but he's younger than Big Papi and plays the field. I also like to keep a starter and my best pitcher was the perennially underrated Doc Halladay (as long as there's no freak accidents).
Best Group of Keepers (tie): Jeff (Cabrera, Utley, Santana) and BQ (Lincecum, Ramirez, Wright)
Both trios contain Cy Young-caliber elite pitchers and big bats at critical positions--all at the height of their careers. Pretty scary considering two guys have six of the fifteen top picks. Everyone else is at a relative disadvantage, especially...
Would You Keep These Guys...cause I wouldn't?: (from reasonable to worst)
Not that some of you guys had a choice, but I'm basing it on whether or not these guys are

top-30 guys...
3. B.J. Upton (Pastorman): Where's the power? I know the potential is there, but it's a HUGE risk to keep him. I would have kept someone else and waited to draft him in round 4...when he'll probably still be around (at least I wouldn't draft him over guys like Holliday, Ortiz, Manny, etc...)
2. C. Granderson (BChiu): Potential 20-20 guy who only stole 12 bases last year in a non-critical position...might be comparable to a guy like Nate McClouth (who BChiu got with pick #58)
1. Ichiro (Tony): A slightly better Jacoby Ellsbury (rd.7) at this point with all-around declining stats...maybe he's a top-30 player if he was pitching...

ROUNDS 4&5
My Picks: Matt Holliday (4-7) and Adrian Gonzalez (5-4):
Two underrated players based on the teams that they play on. Holliday was a tough choice because much of his stats were based on playing at Coors and the transition to the Colisseum would further decimate his power stats. Perhaps it would, but his peripherals (AVG, OBP, steals) were still pretty good. With Holliday's all-around stats and position status, he seemed more valuable than Big Papi (*sniff*). I wasn't a believer in Adrian Gonzalez last year...but I am now. Petco or no Petco, he's a monster
Best Picks: Manny Ramirez (4-6)
I wouldn't draft this guy (stinkin' Dodgers), but in the end, it's still friggin' Manny Ramirez. When motivated, he's probably the best hitter in the league. There aren't any other hitters not named Barry Bonds who can get on base 50% of the time and put up 40 jacks. Now that Juan Pierre is stashed on the bench and guys like Ethier, Furcal, and Kemp are around him, he'll probably put up keeper numbers and is a much better option than Soriano and Quentin, who were taken before him. So here's a catch-a-flyball-HIGH-FIVE to Vince for the Manny selection.
Worst Picks: Carl Crawford (5-6)104R-18HR-81RBI-59SB-355OBP. Now that line would be worth the pick at this position...too bad that's picking and choosing his best career lines. Last year's line looked more like his pitiful first year, except with half the SB's. Maybe the speed comes back, but at best, he's a 15-HR, OBP-hole that would be a 5th round bust. I could pick on my late-round steal last year in Nate McClouth or Yoooooooooouk's career year, but Crawford fits the bill here.

ROUNDS 6&7

My picks: James Shields (6-7) and Dan Uggla (7-4)
I'd have to admit, I wanted Josh Beckett to fall back to me in Round 6...but Vince snapped him up right before me. So in looking for a #2 starter, I was deciding between Shields or King Felix. I loved Hernandez's monster potential, but my pitching strategy has always been more of a "slow-and-steady" wins the race type of mentality. So I went with the safe option of going with Shields. If I told you there was a player who put up a 97R-32HR-92RBI-5SB-.360OBP line at second base available in round 7, wouldn't you draft him? I would. What if I told you Dan Uggla was available in round 7, would you draft him? Probably not. But those are his numbers. It's ugly…no wait it’s Uggla. Okay...I admit it. I drafted him for being so consistent
Best Picks: Josh Beckett (6-6) and Carlos Delgado (7-8)

As stated, I wanted Beckett in round 6…mostly because he was quite unlucky in ’08 and can be a #1 starter, if fully healthy. I also liked the Oswalt pick in round 6 by the Commish (honestly, everyone and their moms know about me and my man-crush on Roy Oswalt…but haven’t Bo had him for more years that I have?) I admit…I thought Carlos Delgado was done last year. As it turns out, he was one of the biggest steals of the draft last year…the man can still put up a massive line in a good lineup. Look at Delgado’s numbers, track record, and lineup and compare him with, say, Carlos Pena (5-10), Ryan Ludwick (6-4) or Mags (7-2) and you’ll see that BChiu got his money’s worth.

Worst Picks: Derrek Lee (6-5) and Rafael Furcal (7-7)

I’m not picking on my brother, but unlike the Delgado revival, Derrek Lee’s career is probably going south from here on out. He’s not going come anywhere near that 46-15 season he had in 2005 and with injuries, his numbers have come down to a solid 20 HR-.360 OBP line. This is respectable, but not a worthy 6^th round pick. He’s better off going with someone who has a higher ceiling at this point like Joey Votto (oh wait, he did…in ROUND 9!) It’s a weak draft for SS, but I’m no fan of Furcal. Despite the optimism of that great first month last year, I don’t think he’ll repeat it. I think Furcal has declining power and speed and his ailing back will probably keep him out of the lineup for half of the year. I didn’t ever want to hear myself say this, but I think I’d rather have Jhonny the Jhoney.

ROUNDS 8&9

My picks: Stephen Drew (8-7) and Zach Greinke (9-4)

OMG! Jermaine Dye was taken as a top-100 pick! Nooooo!!! Where’s Ben Sheets?! You mean he’s out until August?! What am I going to do?! I guess make a few uninspiring selections. But finally, there’s some regularity for me in two solid contributors to my team last year. Stephen Drew was sort of a reach for me, but again, it’s a pretty weak draft for shortstops and I believed that he was the best left on the board with the highest ceiling…and unlike his older brother, Stephen doesn’t live on the DL. Greinke, when his head is on straight, is an excellent pitcher who exceeded my expectations last year and has excellent potential. In retrospect, Carlos Zambrano or John Lester might have actually been better picks in this slot, but hey, I was bedridden with the flu during these rounds…

Best Picks: Javier Vazquez (8-5) and Yovani Gallardo (9-1)

Vazquez and Gallardo both make excellent #2 starters on any fantasy rotation. Vazquez has put up good WHIP and K numbers for years, despite pitching in hitter-friendly ballparks for years. Now that he finds himself back in the NL, he might put up career-best lines. If healthy, Gallardo is a fantasy ace in the making and could be one of the game’s top-15 pitchers. I guess the same could be said about Kazmir (8-10)…hopes of a repeat by Pastorman may rest in the health of young Gallardo and Kazmir.

Worst Picks: Jermaine Dye (8-3) and Hunter Pence (9-3)

I HEART Jermaine Dye. I really do. But I don’t HEART him enough to draft him as one of the top-100, especially as he gets older and more injury-prone. His power numbers will probably be there, but if the average isn’t then he’s barely cracking .300 OBP. I’d say his numbers will be closer to his 2007 numbers than his 2008. *Sniff* Maybe I’m only saying this because I’m jealous that I can’t scream, “Jermaine DYYYYYYYYYYYYYYE!!!” every time he hits a home run. There’s this rumor going around that everyone seems to believe that Hunter Pence is a power-steals threat and he showed that really well in the minors. Well, decent power numbers seem to be there (25 HRs), but is he really a speedster? 11 steals in his rookie campaign seems to indicate that, but 11 steals last year does not. In fact, he got caught 10 times as well. If I were Cecil Cooper, I wouldn’t give Pence the green light. And pair that with his low OBP, I’d much rather have old, reliable Torii Hunter (12-9), who’ll put up comparable power and OBP numbers, but can be relied upon to steal 15 bases.

ROUNDS 10&11

My picks: Matt Cain (10-7) and Geovany Soto (11-4)
Break out! Matt Cain will break out this season and the Giant’s will have the best one-two punch in the bigs. I’m calling it now. I believe it! I believe it! I BELIEVE IT!!! Okay…I think Matt Cain will bring some good numbers and I’m hoping that his luck will change and that the Giants will score some runs (knock on wood) and get some wins. I think I once selected Jason Kendall in the 11^th round…and probably would have placed that pick in the “Worst Picks (Ever)” section. At least Geovany Soto has a little pop…hopefully there’s no sophomore slump in-store for me.

Best Picks: Joe Nathan (11-10) and Raul Ibanez (11-3)

This is the round where everyone starts to take some high risk-high reward players. Will Rich Harden reach 100 IP? Will Randy Johnson give sdiddy 25 starts for reaching for him, or will the Unit pay for glaring at me in Scottsdale (it was kind of freaky)? Joe Mauer is money when he plays, but will he get 600 PA’s? Is Ryan Dempster really not a dumptruck? Is Ricky Nolasco the real (sub 1.00 WHIP?! Are you kidding me?!) deal? Do Carlos Zambrano’s home runs count for BQ’s offensive stats? Goodness, this was a difficult round to decide because so many players could be awesome bargains or tremendous busts because they are either injury-proned or only have a short history of success. I don’t think it’s quite time for all-or-nothing picks just yet. Despite Bo’s pronouncement, I thought he had the best acquisition for this round. While it’s arguable WHEN to select closers, I think it’s quite a bargain to get a top-flight closer with pick #111. It’s sexy to pick a Lester, Harden, or Upton. One of the perennially underrated players in the last eight years is Raul Ibanez. You know you’ll get 20 HR, 100 RBIs, and a .350 OBP…except that he’s accomplished this in two sub-par lineups. Imagine what he could do in the bandbox in Philly with Utley, Rollins, and Howard. Personally, I still haven’t been able to pull the trigger on Ibanez, but in fantasy, it’s good to know what you’re getting. Honorary mention: Papelbon (good spot to start the closer run…which is getting later and later each year) and Mauer (despite injury-risk, is still good for 500+ AB’s, 80 R, 80 RBI, and .400 OBP, which is awesome for a catcher…good thing the AL has the DH).

Worst Picks: Rich Harden (10-6) and Garrett Atkins (11-8)

You realized that last year, at the age of 44, Randy Johnson started a whopping 30 games?! Do you realize that Rich Harden has started only 29 games in the last three years?! You know you’re getting some amazing numbers when Harden takes the rubber, but when will he? Will he hit the DL when the playoffs begin? Will he be at the shelved in the midst of Vince’s push for a bye? To give you a better idea, Jonathan Papelbon pitched 69 innings last year to Harden’s 71 with comparable numbers…except that Papelbon gets you saves. Garrett Atkins is the poster-child for the Coors Field advantage. His away splits last year were .233-.278-.383. An unfair, but fun comparison is with Neifi Perez’s 2005 line: .274-.298-.383. Atkins is a fantasy platoon waiting to happen at this point.

ROUNDS 12&13

My Picks: Erik Bedard (12-7) and Rickie Weeks (13-4)

Definitely a bust if you ever thought he was going to be a top-5 pitcher…which I never thought he was. But I do think that he’s worth a flyer with the 127^th pick, 31^st starting pitcher of the draft. I was really, really tempted to go the safe route and pick Ted Lilly (who I really like)…but I was hoping that Brian would draft him again and then drop him for Armando Galarraga and then I’d use my waiver priority to pick him up…but he ruined my plans by drafting Scott Baker instead. Will Rickie Weeks realize his potential? Probably not, but he’s good for 15 HR, 20 SBs, and .350 OBP in the worst case scenario.

Best Picks: Aaron Harang (12-5) and Brad Radke (13-8/9)

ROAR!!! I wanted the Harangatang!!! He is Harangatang, hear him ROAR his way back to top fantasy form! He gave up a lot of long balls and his opponent BA was pretty high. I expect both of those numbers to drop and for his stats to look more like his 2005 season, which would be similar to what Matt Cain would give me this year—good all-around stats, with K-potential, but not very many wins…a good selection with #125. For starting pitching, good things happen when you don’t walk anyone. The combo of Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey will do just that. Both aren’t big names, but if you have young pitchers with control, you have solid fantasy contributors.

Worst Picks: Chone Figgins (12-4) and Vernon Wells (12-10)

I don’t have anything against CHONAY, except that he’s the most overrated player in fantasy baseball history. He’s got no pop and declining speed. At this point, he’s Ryan Theriot, but without a cool, correctly-spelled name. Not that we count slugging percentage in our league but out of those who qualify, Chone only managed to out-slug Gregor Blanco (.309), Michael Bourn (.300) and Willy Taveras (.296 w/ Coors as his home field…wow…) At least Bourn had 41 steals and Taveras had 68 to make up for that feeble production. The only thing Chone has stolen is Jeff’s 12^th round pick. Ladies and gentlemen, you heard it here first! Vernon Wells is DONE as a fantasy contributor. From lame hammy (say farewell to those 20 SBs that he promised) to broken wrist (say hello to declining power), Vernon Wells will be a contractual nightmare for Riccardi and a rotting bench spot for Pastorman, who will wrestle all year long to decide whether to keep Wells withering away, riding the pine, or dropping him for someone with some potential.

Tune in at the end of the week (maybe…I’m out of town for the weekend) for Part II of Wayne’s draft recap!