Saturday, April 11, 2009

Wayne's Fantasy Baseball Draft Recap - Part II

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Spring Break!!! WOOOOO!!! I would have had the second part done before opening day except I had to chaperone 30+ kids to the regional Key Club Convention/Disneyland for the last four days…thus, my spring break was cut in half. Oh well, at least I got to go to Disneyland to play “go-find-the-Disney-character” in Small World. In the same way, that’s what the second half of a deep fantasy draft is like…finding diamonds in the rough…for every five Dave Bush’s and Kevin Kouzmanoff’s, there’s a Nate McClouth or Josh Hamilton to be discovered. The problem is, it’s almost impossible to predict what kind of bling Elijah Dukes really is…gold or a nasty, gaudy, piece of pyrite. So without further ado, the second half of my draft recap…
ROUNDS 14-16
My Picks: Ryan Zimmerman (14-7), Kerry Wood (15-4), Paul Konerko (16-7)

One of my favorite type of players to pick are those who were hyped-up several years ago, but never fully panned out due to either age or injury. So, while the depth of players in the hot corners might mean that the Ryan Zimmerman pick might be a reach, I still liked the “young Scott Rolen” potential. Besides, regardless of the team, it’s worth having a 3-hole bat in any lineup to bolster the ru
ns and RBI numbers. Who I really wanted was Alex Gordon, but I thought I might be able to get him around round 17, before he was snatched from my grasp by BQ. The main line of “reliable” closers were taken, I figure round 15 would be a good spot to get one. I was deciding between Kerry Wood and his possible replacement, Carlos Marmol, who was lights-out in the setup role. But round 15 is no position for wasted picks for setup men who could rack up the holds, so I went with the “safe” alternative in going for Wood, and I hated every moment of it. Round 16 is a pretty good time to find a “Is he washed up, or does he still have something left in him?” Thus, my Big Sexy pick last year that was a complete waste of a pick and roster spot. So this year’s candidate would be either Paul Konerko or Jason Giambi. Considering that Giambi might not play all the time, I went with Konerko, despite Giambi’s OBP advantage. Besides, having Holliday already in the lineup helped to make that decision.

Best Picks: Jason Werth (14-4), Josh Johnson (14-8), and Catchers-Who-May-Not-Catch How about an outfielder with 24 HRs, 20 SBs, and an OBP of .363? That’s the type of number that you’d probably see from a non-regressed Torii Hunter (12-9), a healthy Vernon Wells (12-10), or what you’ve always wanted from Corey Hart (7-6). The numbers above belong to Jason Werth in just 418 ABs! Now imagine what he could put up with another 200 ABs. There is always the chance that he could regress, but we know that he’s a smart runner (44 SB, 5 CS in his career) and has a good BB-rate, so that helps to keep that success…definitely the best tater in the Spuds. Josh Johnson is money when he’s healthy…but doesn’t that define ALL of the young pitching studs that came before him in Florida (Beckett, Burnett, etc…)? If he is healthy, he could be a capable #2 starter. V-Mart (14-9) is a smart pick for round 14, who will put up good RBI numbers and will hit often as either catcher, 1B, or DH. Ryan Doumit puts up good numbers with OF capability if John Russell wants his bat in the lineup. Finally, you have Kung Fu Panda “playing” the hot-corner for lost Gigantes, while relieving Big Benji behind the plate. If he keeps his AVG up, he won’t be too much of an OBP-hole and a huge run producer. I am also intrigued by Scherzer and Carpenter in round 16…but both are pretty big risks and might put up decent numbers before hitting the DL again.
Worst Picks: Mark DeRosa (14-1), Carlos Marmol (15-6), Johnny Cueto (16-3) Mark DeRosa is Kelly Johnson is Jed Lowrie is Mark Ellis. If all are allowed to start all season, you’ll get a two-bagger who will hit around 15-HR, steal a few bases, score a good number of runs, and drive in a few. Looking at his career line, I really believe that it was a career year and it probably won’t happen again…just a guess, but I think there’s a good chance it might happen. He’s a solid fantasy contributor, but was a position-based reach for a low-ceiling player. Lady Marmolade, good from afar, but far from good. Actually, she’s great if she’s the closer, but unfortunately, she’s not. She still could be down the line, but it’s hard to justify spending your round 15 pick on a closer who will eat up a roster spot for a good portion of the season and not give you any saves. A gutsy pick, but no glory coming here. I'm not sold on Johnny Cueto...one of those pitchers that can be outstanding one outing and then, in the other, completely destroy your pitching week. At this point, there are more reliable pitchers out there (i.e., Carpenter, Young, Jimenez, Jurrjens, Rodriguez, etc...) To make it worse, it's not even a Great American ballpark factor because he's worse at home than on the road. Heck, I think I'd rather have Bronson Arroyo over Cueto.
2008 Gold: Josh Hamilton (14-8…eat your heart out, everyone else), AL MVP Dustin Pedroia (15-4), Ted Lilly (15-6), Carlos Delgado (15-7), Johnny Damon (16-1), Kevin Youkilis (16-10)
2008 Pyrite: Jeremy Bonderman (14-3), Dustin McGowan (15-5), Kelvim Escobar (16-7), Richie “I’m too sexy to hit a ball” Sexson (16-8)

2008 Pyrite: Edgar Renteria (17-6), Ryan Garko (17-7), Aaron Rowand (18-3), Dontrelle Willis (19-6),
ROUNDS 20-22
Maybe it’s just me, but looking at the last two years, it seems like rounds 20-22 seem to be the worst rounds of the draft. It’s a combination of people needing to fill-in roster positions, last minute grabs for c
losers and grabbing prospects who inevitably would be cut the week after he was drafted.
My Picks: Nick Swisher (20-7), Joel Hanrahan (21-4), Andy Pettitte (22-7)
Joe Girardi, you’re a fool. How do you put a guy who has 30 HR, .350 OBP-potential with good defense on the bench? For Xavier Nady?! Sigh…I figured round 20 might be a good time to take a risk on an OF with pop and high-OBP, but perhaps it was a little bit too early. At this point, I needed to start off the season with a second closer and I would have selected Matt Lindstrom, if he didn’t get hurt in the WBC. Brandon Lyon was next on my draft list, but then I remembered, “oh wait, it’s still Brandon Lyon”…so I thought better of it. I am Lyon, hear me blow a save! So…Joel, Joel, he’s my man, if he can’t save it, no one can…Joooooooooel Hanrahan!!! Then in round 22, I spent an hour looking up J.D. Drew’s stats using the wifi at Sac. Int’l Airport only to find out a few minutes before the flight to Phoenix that Bo had already swapped him up. Then I spent the hour and a half flight figuring out how many “t’s” are in Pettitte. Round 2+2 = 4 … and it was so.
Best Picks: Brian Wilson (20-3), Chad Qualls, (21-10), Jair Jurrjens (22-2) A few years ago, the phrase “spending the offseason working out with Barry Zito” might sound like a good thing…but today, we’re not sure…in fact, maybe Wilson’s fantasy value ac
tually declined when we found out he was hanging out at Barry’s pad, playin’ guitar and eating pre-packaged chicken. Still, with the Giant’s excellent starting staff, a good team of setup men, and its anemic offense, there will be tons of opportunities to get a lot of saves. There are going to be some dominant outings and some real ugly ones, but BW will get BC a bundle of saves and a few vulture wins. Boy, it’s slim pickin’s in these three rounds. Chad Qualls has proven to be an excellent setup man in the last few years, but hasn’t made it as a closer. Many are predicting that this is the year that he settles into being a reliable closer…and his K-rate and WHIP seem to indicate that it’s a strong possibility. Jair Jurrjens sounds more like some sort of foreign bathroom product. “I wash my face with Jair Jurrjens, everyday for a silky, clean feel without feeling dry and flaky!” In reality, he’ll provide a lot of clean frames and statistically, was one of the best pitchers in the league during the first half of last year before he tired out and put out a mediocre second frame. This may be the year that he breaks out...wait…that’s not good if he’s…never mind…alright, moving on…
Worst Picks: Nick Swisher (20-7), Joey Devine (21-9), Kevin Kouzmanoff (22-5)

Swisher’s a great pick if he’s starting. He’s an awful pick if he’s playing Mr.Off-Day for the likes of JohnnyD, MarkyMarkTex, and the X. He could still be worthwhile if he gets traded, but otherwise, his value decreases as he doesn’t start AND wastes a precious bench spot on my roster. That’s the problem with these possible potential players…they have high potential that might never come to be…but you hold a bench spot for them and cold possibility miss out on waiver wire gold like Carlos Quentin because you want to hold on to that spot. Sigh. (Did you know? fact of the day: When I pee in a urinal, sometimes I remember Nick Swisher). Joey’s numbers were quite divine last year, putting up a remarkable 0.59 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in the setup role for the A’s last year. However, along the way, he picked up Chavezihardenitis, a disease whose symptoms include an oozing, tantalizing stat line that is powered by MRI’s. Truthfully, because closers don’t pitch enough innings each week, the only stat that really matters for them is saves…and you can’t get them if you’re always sidelined with injuries. At least Tony stole Kevin Gregg in round 25 to make up this pick. And lastly, if I asked you which third-baseman had the line of 71 R, 23 HR, 84 RBI, and an utterly-despicable .299 OBP, who am I referring to? I would automatically say PEDRO FELIZ! Yes, the one and only, Pete Happy…whose sitting happily on the waiver wire. But no, those stats belong to the Crushin’ Russian, Kevin Kouzmanoff (who’s not Russian, btw…). If I had the choice between the two, I’d VOTE FOR PEDRO…at least he plays in a bandbox surrounded by good hitters.
2008 Gold: Joakim Soria (20-1), Matt Garza (20-2), Randy Johnson (2
0-10), Stephen Drew (21-3), Jason Giambi (22-4), Geovany Soto (22-5…who I wanted and was so flustered that I took Barry Zito with my next pick…booo!!!), Kerry Wood (22-7)
2008 Pyrite: Ian Kennedy (20-9), Michael Cuddyer (21-8), Bronson Arroyo (21-9), Bill Hall (22-3), Jason Varitek (22-6), Barry Zito (22-8)…one thing to note: I’m not counting failed closers since it’s a crapshoot anyways
ROUNDS 23-25
My Picks: Jeremy Hermida (23-4), Todd Helton (24-7), Andy Sonnanstine (25-4)
These rounds sum up my drafting style in a nutshell—a post-hype youngster, a possibly washed-up vet, and a boring, reliable pitcher. Jeremy Hermida was a formerly-hyped five tool prospect who really never showed any of the five all that well in the last few years. Keep in mind that he’s only 25 years old and has shown some flashes of breaking out…so he’s worth a flyer in round 23. If this pick doesn’t make any sense, it was because I was drinking during the pick. Helton’s rationale is found below and in looking for a decent starter to round out my rotation, I selected Andy Sonnanstine who won’t get strikeouts, but won’t walk a ton to get into trouble…which is necessary to navigate the mine-filled waters of the AL East.
Best Picks: Shin-Soo Choo (23-6), Paul Maholm (23-10), Todd Helton (24-
7)
I’ll declare it now…this year’s Nate McClouth will be Shin-Soo Choo. I picked McLouth last year based upon a strong performance in about a half-year’s worth of AB’s. He had good speed, some pop and good plate discipline. It’d be the same case with Shin-Soo Choo, except with more HR’s (I’m predicting 25), but less speed. Besides, he’s got the Choolest name in the majors…so hop aboard the Soo-Choo train! A pitching line of 206.1 IP, 139 K’s, 3.71 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP should probably have been picked around 7-8 rounds ago. Unfortunately for Paul Maholm, he makes his home in PNC Park with the Pitifulburgh Pirates where he and his teammates will make history by turning in the 17th consecutive losing seasons. But at least the Pirates’ misfortune is Bo’s fortune to be found with the 230th pick. Finally, the first time where I felt I had the best pick of the round was found in Todd Helton. At worst, he’s going to put up Conor Jackson numbers, but if his back is okay and his power returns, then I could have myself an immense bargain on my hands. Either way, he’s going to get on base, hit in the 3-hole, and play in Colorado. Special mention to the anti-Pacman (another high-potential, 15-15 pick) and Wandy Rodriguez, who’s getting better with each year.
Worst Picks: Carlos Guillen (23-1), Gary Sheffield (24-9), Kelvim Escobar (25-3) There was a time when Carlos Guillen could play SS, hit homeruns, get on-base, and then steal a few…now with age and a few testy hamstrings, his fantasy potential is down to getting on-base and staying in the lineup around Miguel Cabrera and Curtis Granderson. He’ll be one of those guys that you’ll want to stash on your bench, but NEVER play unless someone gets hurt. No one was more frustrating to own than Gary Sheffield (usin
g my round 7, no less! It’s picks like that that would cost anyone the fantasy crown…choosing Sheffield before the likes of Carlos Pena, Tim Lincecum, and Adrian Gonzalez) last year. He wasn’t playing full time and when he was he wasn’t hitting anything. And supposedly, he was healthy all last year…with all signs leading to the fact that he was indeed DONE. Maybe he can still be a useful part-time player somewhere, but he’s no longer a factor in fantasy other than in our memories. And speaking of memories, I think everyone and their moms have forgotten about Kelvim Escobar…except for Matt. We all think that Matt has a man-crush on Jeter…now Longoria…but I think he man that he’s had his eye on all along is Kelvim Escobar. Do you realize that Matt has drafted him 3 out of the last 4 years?! Too bad Kelvim’s only played in 3 of the last 4 years…and this year’s prognosis isn’t looking any better. If he does play, it’s hard to tell whether or not he’s going to be a fantasy contributor at all.
2008 Gold: Scott Baker (23-1), Brian Wilson (23-3), Hiroki Kuroda (23-6), John Lester (23-7), Joey Votto (23-10), Justin Duchscherer (24-7), Milton Bradley (24-10), Kevin Slowey (25-6)
2008 Pyrite: Boof Bonser (23-9), Khalil Greene (24-5), Brian Bannister (25-1), Andrew Miller (25-9)
ROUNDS 26-28
Wow! Check out the GOLD that was to be had in the last three rounds of last year’s draft! While there’s a mess of pretenders being drafted in the end of the draft,
My Picks: Ryan Spilborghs (26-7), Chris Ray (27-4), Nick Johnson (28-4)
Ryan Spilborghs is officially my Nate McLouth candidate this year. He’s a guy with a little pop, a little speed, good on-base and, the best part of all, is that he’s sitting at-top the Rockies lineup. I admit, I punt steals and each year, so I don’t have enough table-setters on my team, Spilborghs will probably be an active part in my lineup. George Sherrill won’t be the closer for the Orioles for much longer and, if given the role again, Chris Ray will probably be one of the better closers in the league. Finally, I was reminded of my Mr. Irrelevant in a local commercial for a private gym/personal trainer where he was frantically doing the bench press. I remember chuckling as I watched this, imagining Nick Johnson clutching his aching back. Well, I’m not laughing any more…more health for the Sacramento-native.
Best Picks: Ian Stewart (26-5), Brad Ziegler (27-8), Jorge Posada (28-10) Ian Stewart is probably in his last year of 2B-eligibility. If he gets to play fulltime, Stewart could supply a high average (and decent on-base) with the potential of 20+ HRs—a solid selection in the late rounds. Submariner Brad will most-likely be the one to sink other teams in the 9th for the A’s and will put up good numbers while he does it. We haven’t had a relevant-Mr. Irrelevant in a long time, but I think Mike got himself a good one with Posada. Hip-Hip-Jorge! probably won’t play as much as he used to, but when he does, he’s going to be a solid contributor with good RBI and OBP lines.

Worst Picks: Ian Snell (27-1), Dave Bush (27-3), Jeremy Bonderman (28-9) For full disclosure, I was very close to selecting Bonderman several rounds earlier, but I refrained…and oh was I glad I did. The three pitchers above aren’t necessarily bad pitchers, but they’re awful picks. All three have the same effect on fantasy owners. As they are sitting on the bench or are at the top of the waiver wire heap, Snell, Bush, and/or Bonderman would have an ABSOLUTELY FABULOUS outing where they go 7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, and 10 K’s…and you’ll go, “WOW! I must pickup/start him next week!” Then when you do, they reward you with an ENTIRELY PREDICTABLE line of 1.2 IP, 8H, 4BB, 9ER, 2K performance as your reward for falling into the trap. Have fun falling into the trap, boys!
2008 Gold: Edinson Volquez (26-1), Justin Upton (26-5), Nate McLouth (27-3), Ervin Santana (28-4…wow…I thought I had the last pick of significance in 2008, but as it turns out, the Santana pick was probably the BEST value of the draft…it’s drafting like THIS that wins you championships…or well, almost…), and Andre Ethier (28-9…well done, Jeff!)
2008 Pyrite: At this point, EVERYONE ELSE, though honorable mention to Mark Prior (26-6…could barely get on the field), Barry Bonds (27-5…couldn’t get back on the field, though not by choice), and good ol’ Eugenio Velez (28-2, though I suspect that he was only drafted so that the “E-U-GE-NIO!” chant/song could be sung)


But wait...it's not over yet! Keep in store for the last portion of Wayne's Draft Recap with his predictions for this upcoming year, so stay tuned!

1 comment:

emmaandbear said...

i have to admit, i didn't read a word of it...but i LOVE the photoshopped pictures! :)